Analyst Predicts Apple Watch Sales to Reach 36 million in First Year

According to an analytic forecast from the Wall Street, Apple has the possibility of selling 36 million of its smartwatches for first year they’re put into the market. This is on the least side of the estimate. The new figure is a prediction from Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has decided to up her Apple Watch sales forecast by 20%, raising it from 30 million which was the earlier figure.


The prediction must have risen higher than that if Apple were having improved fortune as to its supply chain for the smartwatch, the first launch of its kindinto wearables.

The smartwatches market is an exciting one, with a high number of big players which includes the Android-based models which comprises of the Motorola Moto 360 and the LG G Watch R; as well as the Samsung Gear S. But there is more market anticipation in the market for the Apple model. Last year, all smartwatch vendors on an aggregate note could only ship only 4.6 million devices, going by Strategy Analytics.

See also: 5 Reasons Why You Shouldn’t Buy The Apple Watch.

The Apple Watch comes in three different models — the midlevel Apple Watch, the the entry-level Sport version and the luxury Apple Watch Edition. The Sport version has a beginning price of $349, the Apple Watch starts at $549 and the Apple Watch Edition has a starting worth of $10,000. As at now, you could buy them through Apple strictly by reservation at an Apple Store or possibly through online sales, you could also get them in a sprinkling of luxury stores.

The devices were famous for been back-ordered immediately they came up for sale back in April, their delivery timeline spanned across June and July. Apple didn’t really officially release any figures for the first batch sales (this contradicts its particular method when a new iPhone comes up for sale), and there is quite an uncertainty as to how much of the delay is as a result of consumer demand vehemence as well as and the capacity of manufacturing issues or supply shortages.

Last month, Apple CEO Tim Cook commented on only the most peripheral of terms as regards the the inception of Apple Watch sales.

“Right now demand is greater than supply so we are working hard to remedy that,” he said. “I’m generally happy how we’re moving on with the ramp.”

Demand outstripping supply is surely not something new for Apple. It is becoming a tradition that whenever the company introduces a new product. But when we come down to the Apple Watch, the restricted supply has the possibility of stripping company of a rotund number of sales, according going by what Huberty said.

Her estimate of 36 million in unit sales majorly stems from polling. Its major input variables are what those polled saying they would “certainly” purchase the Apple Watch which is different from those who had expresses in doubts their choice to buy it. Thus she could take it that half of the possible buyers could hail from a US location

Huberty has closely monitoring US consumers’ interest in the Apple Watch starting from when it was first revealed to the general public as far back of the September of 2014, and her opinion is that such surveys had actually revealed the potential demand which has been on a consistent increase since the last six months, with notable rises in the past weeks.

“US Apple Watch demand increased around 60 percent since March,” she said. “Importantly, Apple enjoyed the biggest increase in Watch purchase intentions post making the product available in mid-April. While the survey data extrapolates to 50 million annual Watch demand, we see this as a bull case given supply limitations.”

To say it in another way, there is the sound prospects of Apple selling 50 million units of its smartwatches for the first twelve months if only has that production capacity.

Huberty stands by her beliefs tha supply will “significantly undershoot demand” for the first half of the year. But then as the production procedures go up and more orders are met, supply could show similar pace thereby meeting up with demand. Due to this possible incidence, Huberty is for sure certain that her present Apple Watch sales prediction estimates for the June and September quarters but then added up on her estimates for the December and March quarters by an incremental 6 million units.

That high-side analysis does not really agrees withe seemingly bearish situation as predicted by investment firm KGI Securities, where Ming-Chi Kuo has Apple analyst has more than once been on point with his predictions. KGI has cut down on its annual shipment forecast for the Apple Watch for the first half say 9to5Mac. Owing to reduced demand for the watch, KGI had revealed it now thinks Apple could only ship15 million units of the watches for 2015, which is a significant drop from its earlier estimate of 30 million to 20 million units.

Back in March, before the smartwatch was put on sale, Fortune had in its poll a foray of analysts alongside their estimates arriving at figures spreading from 41 million to 8 million, which leaves it at an average of 22.5 million for yearly sales. When May began, UBS analyst Steve Milunovich had chopped down his analyis for Apple Watch sales to 31 million from the 40 million he forcasted before for Apple’s fiscal 2016, which has its start in October. However, the analyst had revealed his predictions had a more bullish disposition on the watch in the longer term, as Barron’s said.

Huberty had in her investor note, also indicated time as regards iPhone sales predictions.

Demand for the iPhone continued to beat what was generally expected despite the fact that iPhone 6 is coming to the closing stages of its product cycle, this would tell us that possibly the next iPhone could be released in say four months. If we rely on the proceeds from Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker, which employs Web searches in the compilation process of sales data, the analyst has increased her iPhone sales forecast for the present June quarter from 46 to 50 million. For that same quarter last year, iPhone sales recorded only 35.2 million units.

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